## Tuesday, February 14, 2012

### The Actual Statistical Probability of Love at First Sight

I keep seeing a book pop up, a book called The Statistical Probability of Love at First Sight.  While I have no interest in the book itself, it made me think.  What is the actual statistical probability of love at first sight?  It's impossible to get an accurate number, but I can at least narrow it down a little.  Because it's Valentine's Day *coughsinglesawarenesscough*, and all that.

First, I am going to assume three things: 1. I will fall in love at first sight with the guy I marry.  2. This as-yet-unknown guy will be from the United States.  3. He is currently between the ages of 13 and 19, making him within 3-4 years of my own age (mostly to make my math a little easier).

Then I did a little research.  This is what I found.  All numbers are very rough estimates.

Right now, there are around 22 million teenagers in America.  Half of them are male, which means there are 11 million teenage boys.

There are 313,019,172 people in America when I checked the census counter, and 6,994,383,344 people in the entire world.

1 of those 11 million teenage boys will be my true love.  1 of 313,019,172 people in America, 1 of 6,994,383,344 in the world.

The probability, then?  There are three ways to look at it.

Out of the 11 million teenage boys in America, the probability is 0.000009%.
Out of the 313,019,172 people in America, the probability is 0.000000319%.
Out of the 6,994,383,344 people in the entire world, the probability is 0.00000001.43%.

Those are staggering numbers.

That, my friends, is about the closest anyone can get to the actual statistical probability of love at first sight.  Fascinating, no?  In fact, if you are a teenager in the USA, this applies to you.  Even if I can't take into account the chances of meeting this person, because that would be impossible to calculate.  But it's still very interesting.

Does that mean I think I won't ever meet this person?  No, of course not.  I believe I will meet this person, despite the 0.0000000143% probability.  (That's where God comes in....)

So, happy Valentine's Day.  Or Singles Awareness Day.  Or Let's All Binge on Chocolate Day.

PS: For the first time ever, I have needed my graphing calculator to write a blog post (though if you see an error in the math, please let me know!).
PPS: No, I didn't just find another way to put off doing my review of Shiver.  No, of course not.  What on earth are you talking about?
PPPS: The cover for the fourth book in the Seven Realms series, The Crimson Crown, has been revealed!  It's...wait for it...crimson.  I like it, although the burning buildings are a bit intriguing.